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Outlier

Rank #10 AU Adelaide, SA, AU Electronica

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Posted a new song: "Untitled" http://www.reverbnation.com/q/54w9dg #music

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“ON COINCIDENCE: Let's define a miracle as an event with million-to-one odds of occurring. Let's assign a number of one bit per second of data that flows into our senses as we go about our day and assume we're awake for twelve hours a day. That nets us 43,200 bits of data per day, or 1,296,000 per month. Even assuming that 99.999 percent of these bits are totally meaningless (and so we filter them out or forget them entirely), that still leaves 1.3 so-called "miracles" per month, or 15.5 miracles per year. Thanks to selective memory (remembering the hits and forgetting the misses) and confirmation bias (seeking out evidence which support our beliefs and ignoring evidence which disconfirm our beliefs), we will remember only those few astonishing coincidences and forget the vast sea of meaningless data. The law of truly large numbers teaches us that, given a large enough number of events (e.g. bits of data flowing through our senses), just about any possible weird coincidence will happen.”
— Michael Shermer, The Believing Brain
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